Lauren Boebert Trails Eileen Laubacher in Uncalled Colorado 4th District Race

Lauren Boebert trails Democrat Eileen Laubacher in Colorado's 4th District on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, leaving one of the safest Republican seats in the country still uncalled a day after voters went to the polls. The Lauren Boebert Colorado 4th District race, rated safe Republican by the Cook Political Report, has become one of the closest contests of the 2026 midterm elections, with the Associated Press listing it as "Too Early to Call" and thousands of ballots still to be counted.

With 507 of 611 precincts reporting, or 82.98 percent, and an estimated 83.05 percent of the expected vote counted, Laubacher led Boebert by 168,729 votes to 163,835. NBC News, at 6:05 a.m. Eastern time on Wednesday, put Laubacher at 49.2 percent and Boebert at 47.7 percent, with Libertarian Douglas Mangeris at 3.1 percent, 343,281 votes counted and about 71,000 votes still expected. On those figures, Boebert would need about 51.9 percent of the remaining vote to catch up.

Key Points

• Laubacher led Boebert 168,729 to 163,835 in the Associated Press count on Wednesday morning, with about 83 percent counted.
• The Associated Press listed the race as "Too Early to Call"; NBC News put Laubacher ahead 49.2 percent to 47.7 percent.
• Laubacher's lead narrowed from about 2.9 points late on election night to about 1.5 points by Wednesday morning.
• Colorado's 4th District is the state's most conservative district, rated safe Republican; Boebert won it by 11 points in 2024.
• Laubacher, a retired Navy rear admiral, is a first-time candidate who campaigned chiefly on affordability.

What Happened

The contest for Colorado's 4th Congressional District was one of the surprises of election night. Early returns showed Laubacher ahead, and although her lead narrowed through the night, she was still in front when counting resumed on Wednesday morning. At 10:58 p.m. Eastern time on Tuesday, her advantage stood at about 2.9 points. By Wednesday morning it had narrowed to about 1.5 points, reflecting the steady arrival of later-counted ballots rather than any change in the overall shape of the race.

The remaining pool of votes is large enough to decide the race either way, but the arithmetic facing Boebert is demanding. With about 71,000 votes still expected, she would need roughly 51.9 percent of them to overtake her challenger. Every new batch of results therefore matters, and neither side could claim victory on Wednesday morning.

Background and Context

Colorado's 4th District stretches across the state's Eastern Plains and parts of the Front Range, and it is widely regarded as Colorado's most conservative district. The Cook Political Report rated it safe Republican, a judgement that reflected both its voting history and Boebert's 11-point victory there in 2024. That result came after Boebert moved to the district from Colorado's 3rd District in December 2023, following a strikingly close re-election fight in her old seat, which she won in 2022 by just 546 votes.

Laubacher's candidacy breaks the usual pattern for the district. She is a retired United States Navy rear admiral who served as a senior director for South Asia on the National Security Council, and she is running for office for the first time. She is also a former Republican who became a Democrat in 2024. Her campaign centred chiefly on affordability, an issue that has dominated voter concerns throughout the 2026 campaign, in a midterm cycle in which Democrats have already made gains across the country, including the loss of the House majority conceded by Speaker Mike Johnson.

Lauren Boebert and the Colorado 4th District Count

The Lauren Boebert Colorado 4th District count now turns on the ballots still to be processed. Colorado conducts its elections largely by mail ballot, and late-arriving ballots postmarked by Election Day can continue to be counted after election night, provided they arrive within the state's deadline. That routine process is one reason close races in the state can take days to resolve, and it explains why a contest with more than 80 percent of precincts reporting can still be genuinely uncertain.

The narrowing of Laubacher's lead overnight matches the pattern in other Colorado contests this cycle, where successive ballot batches moved totals in both directions. In the neighbouring 3rd District, the lead changed hands overnight. In the 4th, the movement so far has favoured Boebert, trimming a 2.9-point gap to about 1.5 points, but not yet erasing it.

Reactions and What the Campaigns Have Said

Neither campaign had claimed victory on Wednesday morning, and the Associated Press kept the race in its "Too Early to Call" category, a status that reflects the size of the outstanding vote rather than any doubt about the votes already counted. Election officials in Colorado have stressed that results remain unofficial until they are certified, and close contests routinely wait for the full count before a winner is declared. The campaigns' contrasting messages help explain the closeness: Laubacher presented herself as a problem-solver shaped by military service, while Boebert, seeking a fourth term, campaigned as an established conservative voice.

The race also sits within a wider national picture. Democrats' midterm gains have included flips in other Republican-held House seats, among them the defeat of Trump ally Jeff Van Drew in New Jersey's 2nd District, and reactions around the world have reflected the scale of the shift, as covered in the global reaction to the Democrats' midterm sweep.

Why It Matters

The race will help determine the final size of the Democratic House majority and the margin available to the next Speaker on close votes. A flip in a district rated safe Republican would widen that margin in a way few forecasters predicted, suggest the mood behind Democratic victories elsewhere reached even the most conservative corners of the map, and mark Laubacher's affordability-first campaign as a template for future contests in Republican-leaning districts.

What Happens Next

Counting will continue as the remaining ballots are processed and verified, and outlets will call the race only when the outstanding vote cannot plausibly change the outcome. If the margin remains within the state's recount threshold once counting is complete, an automatic recount could follow. Boebert needs about 51.9 percent of the roughly 71,000 votes still expected; Laubacher needs only to hold enough of her advantage to stay in front. Voters in Colorado's 4th District may have to wait several more days before they know who will represent them in the next Congress.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is leading in Colorado's 4th District?
Democrat Eileen Laubacher led Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert 168,729 to 163,835 on Wednesday morning, November 4, 2026, with about 83 percent counted.

Has the race been called?
No. The Associated Press listed it as "Too Early to Call", with about 71,000 votes still expected according to NBC News.

Why is this race surprising?
The district is Colorado's most conservative and is rated safe Republican; Boebert won it by 11 points in 2024.

Who is Eileen Laubacher?
A retired US Navy rear admiral and former National Security Council official, a first-time candidate and former Republican who became a Democrat in 2024.

What happens next in the count?
Counting continues until the outstanding vote cannot change the result; a recount could follow if the final margin falls within Colorado's threshold.