The Reuters/Ipsos final poll Trump approval rating stands at 32% on the eve of the 2026 midterm elections, according to the survey completed on Monday, November 2, 2026. Democrats lead Republicans 46% to 38% among registered voters on the generic congressional ballot — an eight-point advantage that is three points narrower than a week earlier — while 78% of voters say the rising cost of living will be very important or the most important issue in deciding how to vote.

Key Points

• President Donald Trump's approval rating is 32% in the final Reuters/Ipsos poll, unchanged from a week earlier and one point above his record-low 31% two weeks ago.
• Democrats lead Republicans 46% to 38% among registered voters on the generic ballot; among likely voters, Ipsos reports Democrats at 52% to Republicans' 44%.
• The eight-point Democratic lead is narrower than the 11-point lead in the Reuters/Ipsos poll a week earlier, a sign the race may be tightening.
• Some 78% of voters say the cost of living will be very important or the most important issue; voters prefer Democrats over Republicans on living costs by 43% to 32%.
• Among independent registered voters, 50% say their vote is a vote against Trump, 13% say it is a vote for him, and 33% say he is not a factor.

What Happened

Reuters and Ipsos released the final poll of the midterm campaign on Monday, November 2, after five days of fieldwork from October 29 to November 2. The survey, conducted online through Ipsos's probability-based KnowledgePanel, covered a nationally representative sample of 1,765 adults aged 18 or older, with a margin of sampling error of about two percentage points. It is the last Reuters/Ipsos reading before Americans vote on Tuesday, November 3, in elections that will decide control of the House and Senate for the final two years of Trump's presidency.

The headline finding is stability at a low level. Trump's approval rating held at 32%, exactly where it was a week earlier and just above the 31% record low recorded two weeks ago. That flat line, so close to a record low, frames the final day of campaigning: a president whose standing has barely moved through the closing weeks, while his party trails on the ballot test that best captures the national mood.

The generic ballot — the question that asks voters whether they would choose a Democrat or a Republican for Congress in their district — gives Democrats an eight-point lead among registered voters, 46% to 38%. A week earlier, the same question gave Democrats an 11-point lead. Among likely voters, Ipsos reports a wider Democratic advantage, 52% to 44% for those who say they would vote for or lean toward the Democratic candidate. The narrowing among registered voters is the poll's most important movement: it suggests the Republican campaign's closing argument may have recovered some ground, even though Democrats remain clearly ahead.

Background: A Campaign Dominated by Prices

The poll's issue findings explain why the Democratic lead has held. Some 78% of voters said the rising cost of living would be very important or the most important issue in deciding how to vote — by far the dominant concern of the campaign. Asked which party is better on the issue, voters picked Democrats over Republicans by 43% to 32%, an 11-point Democratic advantage on the question voters care about most.

Reuters's own framing links that dissatisfaction to the surge in fuel prices since Trump launched a war on Iran in February 2026, a conflict that has driven petrol and diesel prices to record Election Day levels and dominated household budgets through the autumn. In the same survey, only 25% of Americans approved of Trump's handling of the economy and only 20% approved of his handling of the cost of living, according to reporting of the poll — figures that help explain why a president who campaigned on bringing prices down now trails on the very issue that defined his campaign.

Democrats have also overtaken Republicans as the party voters prefer to handle the economy overall, by 34% to 28%, a reversal that would have seemed unlikely at the start of the year. The economy, once Trump's strongest card, has become the central Democratic argument in the closing days: that the administration's war and tariff policies have raised prices for ordinary families while delivering tax cuts for the wealthy, a charge former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi echoed on Monday when she called Trump's midterm talking points a “distraction” from a “trillion dollar tax cut for his billionaire donors.”

Reuters/Ipsos Final Poll: Trump Approval at 32% and the Independent Vote

The independent vote is where the poll is most striking. Among independent registered voters, 50% described their congressional vote as opposition to Trump, while only 13% considered it support for him and 33% said the president was not a factor. In a midterm election, independents often decide the outcome in competitive districts, and a 50-to-13 split against the sitting president is the kind of figure that explains why forecasters have moved toward Democrats in the final days.

The poll also underlines the limits of national polling. The generic ballot records national party preference; control of the House and Senate depends on district-by-district and state-by-state contests. A national eight-point lead does not automatically translate into a specific number of seats, and the narrowing from 11 points to eight is a reminder that late movement, turnout and the distribution of votes across competitive seats all matter. That is why other indicators released over the weekend pointed in the same direction but with different magnitudes: an AtlasIntel poll gave Democrats a 14-point generic-ballot lead, while the RealClearPolitics average put Trump's approval at 39.3%, against 58.8% disapproval — higher than the Reuters/Ipsos figure, but still a wide negative gap.

Forecasting models have moved with the polls. VoteHub, cited in USA Today's closing coverage, gave Democrats an 89% chance of winning the House, projecting 234 seats, and a 68% chance of taking the Senate, with 52 seats projected. Those are models, not votes, and they carry the same caveat as every poll: they describe probabilities, not certainties, and they will be tested within hours.

Reactions and Quotes

The poll's central message, in Reuters's summary, is that “a broad swath of the US electorate saw their vote in Tuesday's congressional midterm elections as a way to oppose the Republican president.” That framing — the midterm as a referendum on Trump — is one both parties have embraced in the final days, though for opposite reasons: Democrats have campaigned on it, while Trump, in his closing speech at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool on Monday, spent more than 20 minutes on the renovation of the pool itself before turning to the election and accusing Democrats of wanting to stop the progress of his administration.

Pelosi's Monday intervention captured the Democratic closing argument in a single post: “He'll talk about anything to avoid talking about his trillion dollar tax cut for his billionaire donors that he made YOU pay for by slashing Medicaid, Medicare and the ACA.” The post, on X, was aimed at the same cost-of-living anxiety the Reuters/Ipsos poll measures — and it landed on the day the poll showed voters trusting Democrats more than Republicans on living costs by 11 points.

The Republican counter-argument, implicit in the narrowing of the generic-ballot lead, is that the final week of campaigning — including Trump's three-week tour of battleground states and districts — has begun to close the gap. A three-point narrowing in a week is within the range that could matter in the closest races, even if it leaves Democrats ahead nationally. Whether that movement is real momentum or statistical noise will be settled by the votes themselves.

Why It Matters

The poll matters first because it is the final Reuters/Ipsos reading, and Reuters/Ipsos has been one of the most consistent trackers of this campaign. Its trajectory — 31% approval two weeks ago, 32% last week, 32% now; an 11-point Democratic lead last week, eight points now — tells a coherent story: a deeply unpopular president, a Democratic advantage that is real but narrowing, and an electorate voting above all on prices.

It matters second because of what it says about the issues. When 78% of voters call the cost of living very important or the most important issue, and when they prefer Democrats on that issue by 43% to 32%, the election becomes a test of economic stewardship. That is a difficult test for any incumbent party in a year when petrol has hit record Election Day prices and the cost of living has dominated every town hall, debate and advertisement of the campaign.

It matters third as a check on other polls. The Reuters/Ipsos 32% sits below the RealClearPolitics average of 39.3% and below the NBC News final poll's 40% approval, but the direction is the same across pollsters: Trump is unpopular, Democrats lead on the generic ballot, and the economy is the decisive issue. When different pollsters, with different methods, converge on the same story, that story is harder to dismiss as a single poll's quirk.

What Happens Next

Americans vote on Tuesday, November 3. All 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats and 36 governorships are at stake, along with state offices and ballot measures across the country. More than 54 million Americans had already cast ballots before Election Day, according to the University of Florida Election Lab — eight million more than in 2022 — so the Reuters/Ipsos poll's likely-voter figures already reflect a large share of the final electorate.

Results will begin to emerge on Tuesday night, with the closest races — including the Michigan Senate contest, where Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers in recent polling, and the Texas, Maine, Kansas, Ohio, Alaska and Iowa Senate races — likely to determine whether Democrats gain the net four Senate seats they need for a 51-49 majority. The House, where Democrats need only a small net gain given the current 218-214 Republican edge in the context cited by earlier coverage, could be decided by a handful of districts. US News Pulse will report the results as they are called.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Trump's approval rating in the final Reuters/Ipsos poll?

32%, unchanged from a week earlier and one point above his record-low 31% two weeks ago, in a poll conducted October 29 to November 2, 2026.

Who leads on the generic congressional ballot?

Democrats lead Republicans 46% to 38% among registered voters, an eight-point advantage, down from 11 points a week earlier. Among likely voters, Ipsos reports Democrats at 52% to Republicans' 44%.

How many people were surveyed, and what is the margin of error?

The poll surveyed 1,765 U.S. adults online through Ipsos's KnowledgePanel, with a margin of sampling error of about two percentage points.

What issue matters most to voters?

The cost of living: 78% say it will be very important or the most important issue, and voters prefer Democrats over Republicans on living costs by 43% to 32%.

Does a national generic-ballot lead guarantee control of Congress?

No. The generic ballot measures national party preference; control of the House and Senate depends on district-by-district and state-by-state contests, so a national lead does not automatically translate into a specific number of seats.

Related coverage: NBC News final poll: Democrats lead 52-45 as Trump disapproval hits 60%, Judge Boasberg blocks the Trump demand to segregate California ballots, and El-Sayed raises $2.4 million in one day after Stevens backs Rogers in Michigan.