Trump Declares Alaska Senate Race 'Over' as Peltola Still Leads by 637 Votes

President Donald Trump declared the Alaska Senate race over on Saturday, insisting Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan had won "by a lot" — even though Democrat Mary Peltola still led by 637 votes and tens of thousands of ballots remained uncounted. In a Truth Social post on Nov. 7, Trump argued the votes of two other candidates should be added to Sullivan's total — a claim that contradicts how Alaska's ranked-choice voting works. The race has not been called by The Associated Press or any major news outlet.

Key Points

• Trump posted on Saturday that "The Alaska Race is OVER. Dan Sullivan WON, BY A LOT!"
• Peltola led Sullivan 102,962 votes to 102,325 — 48.17% to 47.88% — with about 74% of the vote counted.
• Trump wants the votes for Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. (3,600) and Gerald Heikes (4,846) added to Sullivan's total.
• Alaska uses ranked-choice voting; the final tabulation is Nov. 18, with certification targeted for Nov. 25.
• The declaration came a day after Peltola's campaign sued Alaska for records on rejected absentee ballots.

What Happened

Trump made the claim in a Truth Social post on Saturday, Nov. 7, as counting continued in one of the closest Senate races of the 2026 midterms. "Daniel Sullivan is leading substantially in the Alaska Senatorial Race," he wrote. "When you add Daniel (3,600, 1.68%) into Dan, and Gerald Heikes (4,846, 2.27%), Senator Dan Sullivan is up by thousands of Votes."

"I don't know what takes so long to announce his win. This should be immediate!" Trump added. He called Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., a retired Petersburg schoolteacher, a "fraud" candidate who "Never even voted", and said Heikes "was also fraudulently put into the Race". He urged supporters: "Don't let them steal a seat", adding that the result "would put GOP at 45 seats instead of 44."

The numbers are real: Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. won 3,600 votes (1.68%) and Heikes 4,846 (2.27%). But adding them to Sen. Dan Sullivan's total is not how Alaska counts elections: under ranked-choice voting, voters rank candidates and ballots are redistributed in rounds. As of Saturday afternoon, Peltola led by 637 votes, 102,962 to 102,325, with roughly 74% counted and absentee ballots still arriving. No news organisation had called the race.

Background: A Race Defined by Two Dan Sullivans

The race has been tangled in the namesake question for months. Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., a retired Petersburg schoolteacher, qualified for the ballot under a name nearly identical to the incumbent senator's. The Alaska Supreme Court ordered him onto the ballot in June, and the question of whether voters would confuse the two men has shadowed the contest ever since.

On Oct. 22, the Justice Department sued in federal court in Anchorage, seeking to block certification if Peltola won, on the theory that the senator would have won had all of Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.'s votes gone to him. Peltola called the suit "desperate" and "clearly corruption." A judge later dismissed the challenge, and the certification lawsuit was rejected. Days before the election, The New York Times reported on a secret "ballot composition project" said to have recruited the second Dan Sullivan; Trump demanded Peltola be removed from the ballot, calling it "ELECTION FRAUD", and Gov. Mike Dunleavy ordered a state investigation. A Data for Progress survey conducted Oct. 8-16 put Peltola ahead 47% to 44%.

Alaska Senate Race: Why Trump's Math Does Not Add Up

Trump's arithmetic is simple: add the two other candidates' votes to Sullivan and he wins by thousands. Alaska's system does not work that way. In a ranked-choice election, if no candidate wins more than half of first-choice votes, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated and those ballots go to each voter's next choice, repeating until one candidate passes 50%.

That means the 3,600 votes for Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. and the 4,846 votes for Heikes cannot simply be handed to Sen. Sullivan. Their voters' second choices are unknown; many may have ranked Peltola second, or nobody else at all. The final tabulation, scheduled for Nov. 18, will decide the race on voters' actual preferences, not on a lump-sum addition. A 637-vote lead with about a quarter of the vote still to count is far from decisive. Either candidate could still win.

Reactions

Saturday's post was not Trump's first intervention. Two days earlier he demanded the two minor candidates' votes "be immediately given to the REAL Dan Sullivan, and the Election is over — He easily wins." Saturday's declaration went a step further, from a demand to a declaration of victory, and added the fraud allegation against both men.

The declaration came a day after Peltola's campaign sued Alaska for records on rejected absentee ballots. The lawsuit says the campaign "cannot ensure that its voters' lawful votes were properly counted without knowing whose absentee ballots were rejected or questioned, and why." Alaska's Division of Elections pushed back, saying state law does not require the release and that it could delay counting. Neither the campaign nor election officials had publicly answered Trump's declaration by Saturday afternoon.

Why It Matters

The Alaska seat is one of the last unresolved contests of the 2026 midterms. Trump says a Sullivan win "would put GOP at 45 seats instead of 44," a reminder that every seat shapes the balance of power in a Senate where Democrats took control in January after their sweeping Nov. 3 victory.

It also matters as a test of a premature victory claim in a state with one of the country's most distinctive voting systems. Alaska adopted ranked-choice voting to let voters express fuller preferences, and its slow, careful count — with absentee ballots accepted after Election Day — is built into the process. A claim that the race is over while a quarter of the vote is uncounted cuts against that design.

What Happens Next

Counting continues in Alaska, with absentee ballots still arriving. The final ranked-choice tabulation is scheduled for Nov. 18, and certification is targeted for Nov. 25. Legal challenges remain possible from either side once the final numbers are known. Until the tabulation is complete, the race remains uncalled — whatever Truth Social says.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is leading the Alaska Senate race?
Democrat Mary Peltola led Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan by 637 votes on Saturday, 102,962 to 102,325, with about 74% counted.

Has the Alaska Senate race been called?
No. The Associated Press and other major outlets have not called it, and tens of thousands of ballots remain uncounted.

Why does Trump say Sullivan won?
Trump argues the votes for Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. (3,600) and Gerald Heikes (4,846) should be added to Sullivan's total. Alaska's ranked-choice system does not count votes that way.

When will Alaska finish counting?
The final tabulation is scheduled for Nov. 18, with certification targeted for Nov. 25.

What is ranked-choice voting?
Alaska voters rank candidates. If no one wins a majority, the last-place candidate is eliminated and those ballots move to voters' next choices until someone passes 50%.

Related coverage: Trump Demands 'Fake Dan Sullivan' Votes Go to Sullivan; Alaska Absentee Ballots Lawsuit in Tight Senate Race; Alaska Lawsuit in Blow to Trump Bid to Block Certification.