Brent Crude Drops Below $98 as Gulf Producers Slash Prices After Iran Talks

Brent crude oil prices slid below $98 a barrel on Monday, extending one of the sharpest collapses in oil-market history, as Gulf producers slashed prices and hopes grew of a diplomatic end to the eight-month war between the United States and Iran. Brent, the global benchmark, fell about 1 percent to around $97.30 to $97.48 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude dropped to roughly $90.17 to $90.51.

The slide capped a brutal week. Brent lost roughly 17 percent last week — its steepest weekly fall since the start of the Covid pandemic and the largest absolute weekly decline in LSEG data going back to 1988 — settling at $98.32 on Friday. WTI fell nearly 13 percent on the week.

Key Points

• Brent fell about 1 percent on Monday, November 9, 2026, to around $97.30–$97.48 a barrel; WTI dropped to about $90.17–$90.51.
• Brent lost roughly 17 percent last week — its steepest weekly fall since Covid and the largest absolute weekly drop in LSEG records back to 1988 — settling Friday at $98.32.
• Saudi Arabia cut its December Arab Light price for Asian customers by $2 a barrel, to a $6.50 discount against Oman/Dubai — the lowest since May 2020.
• President Donald Trump said on Sunday that fresh US strikes on Iran were “highly unlikely” while talks progress, lifting hopes of a negotiated end to the war.
• Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent forecast to $105 a barrel from $90, while JPMorgan estimates global oil use has fallen about 3.3 million barrels a day since the war began.

What Happened

Monday's selling picked up where Friday's rout left off. Brent had traded above $106 a barrel only a week earlier, after US strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island. The trigger was political: President Donald Trump told CNN on Sunday, November 8, that fresh US strikes on Iran were “highly unlikely” while negotiations continue — the clearest signal yet that Washington prefers a deal to more bombing. The war, now in its ninth month, has defined the oil market all year: every escalation pushed prices higher, and every hint of diplomacy pulled them lower. Crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 10.3 million barrels a day in October, up from virtually zero in the first month of the war.

Background

The market's wild year began with the war's outbreak in late February 2026, when the United States launched strikes against Iran and Tehran responded by disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway that carries a fifth of the world's seaborne oil. That shock never fully materialised: Hormuz flows recovered steadily, but the war premium lingered in futures prices long after the physical market had healed. The Qeshm Island strikes in early November briefly pushed Brent back above $106. Then, on November 2, Brent fell 7.6 percent to $104.77 as both sides signalled a diplomatic end was possible. The following week brought the steepest weekly collapse since Covid.

Brent Crude Oil Price: Why the Gulf Price War Is Deepening

The clearest sign the market has flipped from scarcity to surplus is the price war among Gulf producers. Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, cut its December price for Arab Light crude for Asian customers by $2 a barrel, to a $6.50 discount against Oman/Dubai — the deepest since May 2020, when the pandemic crushed demand.

The Saudi cut is not happening in isolation. With Hormuz flows restored, Gulf producers are competing aggressively for Asian buyers, and discounts are the weapon of choice. Demand is not helping: JPMorgan estimates global oil use has fallen about 3.3 million barrels a day since the war began. When demand falls that far, producers must cut output together or cut prices to defend their share of a shrinking market. Right now, they are choosing price. Yet Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent forecast to $105 a barrel, up from $90, betting the market has overshot and that any breakdown in the talks could restore the war premium fast.

Reactions

President Trump's Sunday remark was the weekend's most market-moving comment, following days of signals from both sides that a settlement is possible. For oil traders, the message was simple: the risk of a sudden supply shock is receding. The physical market, however, sent a different signal on Monday. Abu Dhabi's Murban crude rose 3.4 percent to $99.17 a barrel, about $1.70 above Brent futures, suggesting buyers of real barrels are less bearish than traders of paper contracts. Iranian media also reported no ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday — a reminder the recovery, while real, is not yet routine.

Why It Matters

For American consumers, cheaper oil is welcome news: gasoline prices track crude with a lag of a few weeks, so the collapse should feed through to lower prices at the pump. High gasoline prices were cited by voters as a factor in last Tuesday's midterm elections, and a sustained fall would ease household budgets heading into winter. For producers, the picture is darker: budgets in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states were drawn up assuming far higher prices, and a prolonged stretch below $100 forces difficult choices about spending, subsidies and investment. Cheaper energy helps importers and dampens inflation — but JPMorgan's estimate of 3.3 million barrels a day of lost consumption warns the world economy is softer than it looks.

What Happens Next

The immediate focus is the US-Iran talks. If negotiators make visible progress, the war premium could drain further and Brent could test still lower levels, especially if Gulf producers keep discounting to defend market share. If talks stall or break down, the premium could return just as fast, and Goldman's $105 December forecast would suddenly look less like an outlier. Traders will also watch the next round of official selling prices and weekly inventory data — and the Murban premium over Brent: if physical grades hold up while futures fall, the sell-off may be overdone; if physical prices follow futures down, the glut is real.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did Brent crude fall below $98?
Hopes of a diplomatic end to the US-Iran war, after President Trump called fresh strikes “highly unlikely”, plus Gulf price cuts and weak global demand.

What is the current price of Brent crude?
Around $97.30 to $97.48 a barrel on Monday, November 9, 2026, after settling at $98.32 on Friday. WTI traded around $90.17 to $90.51.

Why is Saudi Arabia cutting its oil price?
It cut its December Arab Light price for Asian buyers by $2 a barrel, to a $6.50 discount against Oman/Dubai — the lowest since May 2020 — as Gulf producers fight for buyers.

Will cheaper oil mean lower gasoline prices?
Yes, with a lag of a few weeks. Gasoline prices follow crude, so the fall in Brent and WTI should reach the pump if it holds.

Could oil prices rebound quickly?
Yes. Goldman Sachs sees Brent at $105 in December, and any breakdown in the talks could restore the war premium fast.

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