The election week jobs report will share the spotlight with the midterm elections themselves. Investors face a packed calendar: the congressional election and September's job-openings report on Tuesday, November 3, followed by the October employment report on Friday, November 6, alongside earnings from Palantir and AMD — all while markets price a strong chance of another Federal Reserve rate increase in December.
Wall Street closed a bruising week on Friday, October 30, with the S&P 500 down 1.83% to 7,578.97 and the Nasdaq Composite down 2.84% to 25,442.31, according to EconoTimes and HawkValue's week-ahead summaries. The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.917% and the 2-year at 4.569%, with the VIX volatility gauge at about 22.75. Over the full month, however, Treasury yields fell — the 10-year down 35 basis points and the 30-year down 33 basis points from September 30 to October 30 — even as oil surged: December-delivery Brent crude settled at $117.64 a barrel on October 30, up 13.6% in October, while West Texas Intermediate settled at $104.12, up 15.2%.
That mixed backdrop — falling stocks on Friday, a resilient economy underneath, and rising oil — is exactly why this week's data matters so much. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has scheduled September's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, known as JOLTS, for 10 a.m. ET on Tuesday, the same day voters go to the polls. Its October Employment Situation report follows on Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. In between, Monday brings the ISM manufacturing index, Wednesday brings ISM services and trade data, Thursday brings weekly jobless claims and a productivity report, and the ADP National Employment Report is due November 4.
The labour market story so far is one of steady but slowing hiring. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm employment rose by just 29,000 in September, while unemployment was 4.2%. Forecasters now expect October's report to show monthly job growth more than doubled, to about 65,000 according to Bloomberg Economics' survey cited by The Edge, or about 55,000 according to the consensus cited by HawkValue and Barron's, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.2%. Barclays expects a 50,000 gain and 4.1% unemployment, while average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% on the month and 2.9% on the year.
Other labour-market data due this week could reinforce the stability theme. The monthly job-openings report due Tuesday is expected to show listings ticked higher in September, and economists will scrutinise numbers on layoffs and quitting. Weekly jobless claims figures out Thursday are seen remaining near the lowest levels in decades. ADP's measure of weekly private payrolls points to a monthly gain of around 65,000 jobs in October, down from September's reported advance of 90,000. The Indeed Job Postings Index rose 0.3% in October, while LinkedIn reports that hiring in September remained 3.4% below its level of a year ago.
The Federal Reserve's position frames everything. On October 28, the Federal Open Market Committee held its target federal funds rate range at 3.75% to 4%, saying inflation remained elevated and employment gains broadly matched growth in the labour force. The vote was 10-2, with two members wanting an increase. That followed the Fed's first rate hike in three years in September, a 25-basis-point increase that took rates to their current range. Consumer prices were up 3.7% in September from a year earlier, with core consumer inflation at 2.6%, while core PCE inflation — the Fed's preferred underlying gauge — was 3.1% year on year, and third-quarter GDP grew 3.4% annualised.
Friday's jobs report is the week's capstone because it answers the question hanging over both the election and the Fed: is the labour market merely cooling, or is it breaking? "Underneath the steady unemployment rate, job losses are slowly climbing, but jobless claims don't yet show mass layoffs building. The underlying story is that a low-hire, low-fire labour market is losing momentum, but not breaking," Bloomberg Economics said. That distinction matters for the Fed, because weak jobs numbers would give the market an argument against a December hike, while strong numbers would support one.
The details beneath the headline will be watched as closely as the headline itself. Healthcare and social assistance, which includes support aides and social-work roles, have averaged 41,000 monthly job gains this year, down from an average monthly pace of 57,000 in 2025 and 74,000 in 2024. Construction and manufacturing have reversed the hiring declines they saw over the past two years, both netting positive results since June, though the average monthly gain was only 18,000 year to date through September. As of September, 27.1% of unemployed people had been jobless for more than 27 weeks, up from 24.7% in January, according to Matthew Martin, senior US economist at Oxford Economics — a sign that finding a new job, once lost, is getting harder even while layoffs stay low.
Manufacturing and services surveys bookend the week. Monday's ISM manufacturing index is due with a consensus of 54.7, against 54.5 previously, and Wednesday's ISM services index is expected at 54.7 against 54.9 previously — both consistent with robust factory activity and a still-expanding services sector. Wednesday's trade data will probably confirm that AI-related imports continued to push the trade deficit wider last month, while Thursday's productivity report is expected to show a 2.6% boost in the third quarter, which would be the biggest in a year.
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh devoted just a few words to the labour market at his news conference on October 28, assuring the audience that employment conditions are stable. "Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little, so on the employment side of the Fed's dual mandate, conditions are quite positive," he said, before pivoting to a discussion of inflation. Barron's, however, notes that the labour outlook may not be as rosy as Warsh suggested: payroll growth is noticeably above last year's pace, but this year's average monthly gain of 68,000 is not especially strong, and the drivers behind sluggish job growth are not fading.
Most Fed officials remain upbeat because unemployment trends remain historically low within the estimated bounds of full employment. The unemployment rate ticked up by just a tenth of a percentage point in September, and initial unemployment insurance claims have run at some of the lowest levels since the 1960s in recent weeks. Yet traders are not waiting for reassurance: CME FedWatch shows a chance of about 70.7% for a December rate increase according to EconoTimes, about 74.9% according to HawkValue, and 76.5% according to Mortgage Professional America — a range that, taken together, points to roughly three-in-four odds of a hike, with FedWatch pricing further increases by June 2027.
Election week concentrates three forces that normally move markets separately: politics, jobs and interest rates. On Tuesday, 35 Senate seats, all 435 House seats and 36 governorships are on the ballot, and prediction-market odds cited by HawkValue put a Democratic sweep at 70%, a Democratic House with a Republican Senate at 24% and a Republican sweep at 7%. A change in control of Congress would reshape the legislative agenda for the president's final two years, including spending, tariffs and tax policy — which is why investors will read Tuesday night's results alongside Wednesday morning's market open, not apart from it.
Earnings keep the technology story in the frame. Palantir plans to release third-quarter results after Monday's market close, with a webcast at 5 p.m. ET, and Advanced Micro Devices plans to report fiscal third-quarter results after Tuesday's close, followed by a conference call at 5 p.m. ET. Both arrive after a week in which heavy AI spending punished technology stocks, and both will be judged on whether that spending is turning into revenue — the same question behind Friday's sell-off and behind the trade data showing AI-related imports widening the deficit.
The calendar runs in order. Monday: ISM manufacturing and Palantir after the close. Tuesday: the midterm elections, JOLTS at 10 a.m. ET, and AMD after the close. Wednesday: ISM services and trade data. Thursday: weekly jobless claims and third-quarter productivity. Friday: the October employment report at 8:30 a.m. ET — the number that will either confirm the market's December-hike pricing or challenge it. The Fed's October meeting minutes are also due in the coming week, offering a fuller account of the 10-2 hold decision.
For households, the stakes are practical rather than abstract. Mortgage rates have eased from this month's highs but remain elevated — Freddie Mac's 30-year average was 7.32% on October 22, down from 7.40% a week earlier — and the path of those rates into year-end depends heavily on whether Friday's jobs data keeps the Fed on track for December. A soft report would strengthen the case for patience; a strong one would keep tightening firmly on the table.
When is the October jobs report released? Friday, November 6, at 8:30 a.m. ET, by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
What is expected? Job growth of roughly 55,000 to 65,000 in October, against 29,000 in September, with unemployment steady at 4.2%.
What else is due in election week? September's JOLTS job-openings report on Tuesday, November 3, at 10 a.m. ET; ISM manufacturing on Monday; ISM services and trade data on Wednesday; jobless claims and productivity on Thursday; and Palantir and AMD earnings on Monday and Tuesday evenings.
Will the Fed raise rates in December? Markets price roughly a 71% to 77% chance of an increase, according to CME FedWatch readings cited this week, after the Fed held at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28 by a 10-2 vote.
When are the midterm elections? Tuesday, November 3, 2026, with 35 Senate seats, all 435 House seats and 36 governorships on the ballot.
Related coverage on US News Pulse: Wall Street sell-off: S&P 500 suffers worst day since June on AI fears, Wall Street, October 28, 2026: stocks edge higher as Fed holds rates, and Tech stocks slump worldwide as Alphabet's $500 billion rout spreads to Asia.
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