Trump Midterm Prediction: 'Better Than You Think' as He Says Inflation Is Solved

President Donald Trump used his Election Day television pitch to predict that Republicans would perform "better than you think" in the 2026 midterm elections, declaring that "inflation is solved" and "everything's going good" even as official figures show consumer prices still rising faster than when he began his second term.

The Trump midterm prediction came in a Fox & Friends interview on the morning of Tuesday, November 3, 2026, as voters decided all 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats and governorships in 36 states. Rather than dwell on grocery, fuel and healthcare prices, Trump pointed to immigration enforcement and growth in American manufacturing as evidence that his administration was delivering.

Key Points

• Trump told Fox & Friends on Election Day that Republicans would do "better than you think" in the 2026 midterms.
• He declared "inflation is solved" and "everything's going good", despite consumer prices rising 3.7% year on year.
• Annual inflation stood at 3.7% in September, up from 3% when Trump began his second term; the personal consumption expenditures index was 3.6%.
• Trump defended his record through immigration enforcement, tariffs and the war with Iran, saying: "We have to keep America great."
• About 210 million Americans were registered to vote, with more than 57 million ballots already cast before Election Day.

What Happened

Speaking live on Fox & Friends on Tuesday morning, Trump delivered a confident closing message. "I think the results are going to be better than you think," he said, urging supporters to turn out as though he himself were on the ballot. He has repeatedly told voters to treat the midterms as a referendum on his leadership, even though his name appears on no ballot this year.

On the economy, Trump brushed aside the affordability concerns that have dominated the campaign. "Inflation is solved," he said. He did not address the specific prices voters cite most often, including groceries, petrol and health insurance, and instead highlighted immigration enforcement and what he described as expanding United States manufacturing.

Background and Context

Midterm elections have historically punished the party holding the White House, and 2026 is no exception in the polling. Democrats need a net gain of only three House seats and four Senate seats to take control of each chamber, and forecasters have given them a strong chance in the House in particular.

The economy is the central battleground. Annual inflation stood at 3% when Trump began his second term and has since risen to 3.7% year on year in September, according to Labor Department data reported by the Wall Street Journal, while the Commerce Department's personal consumption expenditures index stood at 3.6%, up from 3.4% in August.

Immigration enforcement has been the administration's other signature theme, and Trump returned to it on Election Day as proof of delivery. Tariffs, too, featured in his defence: he argues that trade policy protects American manufacturing, while critics say it has added to household and business costs. The war with Iran has divided voters, many angry about an unpopular conflict even as the administration argues it has degraded Iran's nuclear programme.

Trump Midterm Prediction and the Inflation Claim

The Trump midterm prediction is best read as both a forecast and a turnout device. By telling supporters results will be "better than you think", Trump sought to counter gloomy expectations in much of the pre-election polling and to persuade wavering supporters that voting was still worthwhile. Presidents facing difficult midterms routinely project confidence in public, whatever their private polling shows, because conceding a bad night in advance risks depressing their own side's turnout.

The inflation claim is more specific, and therefore more checkable. Consumer prices rose 3.7% in the year to September, up from 3% at the start of the second term, and the personal consumption expenditures index rose 3.6%. Neither measure supports describing inflation as solved, although the administration could argue the rate has fallen from much higher peaks earlier in the decade.

Reactions and Quotes

Trump's own words, quoted in live coverage, formed the core of the day's debate. "I think the results are going to be better than you think," he said. "Inflation is solved," he added, followed by: "Everything's going good." On his broader record he said: "We have to keep America great. We're great now. We were terrible two years ago."

Voters interviewed on Election Day showed why the argument cuts both ways. Mark Barker, of Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, said Trump was top of mind as he voted, praised the president's performance, and cited the promise of $5,000 for every adult American if Republicans retain Congress, alongside border policy and the war in the Middle East.

Why It Matters

Tuesday's elections are widely described as a referendum on Trump's second term, and his Election Day pitch is the clearest statement of how he wants that referendum framed: as a verdict on immigration, manufacturing and national strength, not on grocery prices alone. If Republicans outperform expectations, Trump will claim the result as a personal endorsement. If Democrats take one or both chambers, his "better than you think" prediction will be quoted back at him as evidence of misjudgement.

What Happens Next

Polls close at different times across the country, with the first closing at 6 p.m. Eastern Time in parts of Kentucky and Indiana and the last, in the western states, hours later. Early results will indicate whether Trump's optimism was justified, but control of the House and Senate may not be settled on election night, particularly where mail and absentee ballots take days to count.

Once results are known, consequences will follow quickly. A Democratic House would gain subpoena and oversight powers and the ability to block the president's agenda; a Democratic Senate would add control over confirmations. A Republican hold on either chamber would let Trump argue voters endorsed his programme and press ahead on immigration, tariffs and foreign policy.

Frequently Asked Questions

What did Trump say about the midterms on Election Day?

Trump told Fox & Friends that Republicans would perform "better than you think" in the 2026 midterms, declaring that "inflation is solved" and "everything's going good".

What is the actual inflation rate?

Consumer prices rose 3.7% year on year in September, up from 3% when Trump began his second term, while the personal consumption expenditures index stood at 3.6%.

What was at stake in the 2026 midterms?

All 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats and governorships in 36 states were contested, with about 210 million Americans registered to vote.

Why did Trump focus on immigration and manufacturing?

He presented immigration enforcement and manufacturing growth as his administration's strongest achievements, rather than addressing grocery, fuel and healthcare prices directly.

When will the midterm results be known?

First polls closed at 6 p.m. Eastern Time, but control of Congress may take days to settle in close races where mail and absentee ballots are still being counted.

Read more on US News Pulse: Record 58.7 million Americans voted early in the 2026 midterms, Marjorie Taylor Greene calls the midterms a complete referendum on Trump, and Westchester ballot scanners down on Election Day as voters use orange bags.