President Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to 36 percent in the New York Times poll tracker, the lowest mark for any president heading into a midterm election in the last 80 years, USA Today reported on Sunday, November 1, 2026, just two days before voters decide control of Congress. The tracker, which compiles the daily average of polls conducted by various organisations, put disapproval at 61 percent, leaving the president underwater by 25 points as the final weekend of campaigning reaches its climax.
The finding lands at the worst possible moment for a White House that has spent the closing weeks of the campaign trying to frame Tuesday's election as a choice about tax cuts and manufacturing growth driven by tariffs on foreign imports. Instead, the Times' final national poll, conducted with Siena University, points to the issues dragging the president down: the cost of living and the price of fuel. Just under three in 10 likely voters support how the president has managed Americans' cost of living, the Times said, and more than four in 10 Republicans dislike his handling of fuel costs.
USA Today's live midterm coverage published the tracker finding at 9:40 a.m. Eastern Time on Sunday, under the heading "Trump's approval marks pre-midterm low". The update noted that the president's favourability had dipped over the last 30 days, a slide that carried him below every other modern president at the equivalent point before a midterm election.
The comparison drawn by the Times is a stark one. Cohn, the paper's chief political analyst, said Trump now has the lowest pre-midterm favourability rating since Harry Truman, and USA Today recalled what followed for Truman's Democrats: they were, in its words, "shellacked" in the 1946 elections. The historical echo is not a prediction, but it explains why Republican strategists have watched the tracker so nervously in the final days.
The poll detail matters as much as the headline number. A president can survive a low overall rating if voters still trust him on the issues they care about most. The Times/Siena findings suggest the opposite is happening here. On the cost of living, the central domestic question of this campaign, fewer than three in 10 likely voters support the president's management. On fuel costs, the damage crosses party lines: more than four in 10 Republicans, the president's own party, dislike his handling of the issue.
USA Today's own framing of the campaign points in the same direction. Its live coverage described Trump as facing "his lowest job approval rating because of high gas prices and the lingering war in Iran", even as he promotes tax cuts and manufacturing growth spurred by his tariffs. The combination of expensive fuel at the pump and a war that has not ended has left the administration's economic message struggling to land with the voters it most needs.
Midterm elections have always been difficult for the party in the White House, and 2026 is no exception in scale. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are on the ballot, along with more than a third of the Senate, 35 seats in total, and 39 gubernatorial contests. Republicans currently hold a 218-214 majority in the House and a 53-47 majority in the Senate, margins so narrow that a swing of a handful of seats in either chamber would change who governs.
That is why the approval tracker carries so much weight. Midterm elections are widely treated as a referendum on the president, and both parties have framed this one that way. Democrats have threatened to investigate the Trump administration if they regain control of either chamber, and to thwart the president's legislative agenda. If Democrats won the Senate, they could also block the president's top nominees, a prospect that has sharpened the stakes of the Senate races in particular.
The early voting numbers show an electorate that is already engaged at record levels. More than 52 million Americans have voted in person or by mail, according to the University of Florida's Election Lab, a record for a midterm and up from nearly 46 million who voted before Election Day in 2022. The campaign itself could be the most expensive ever, at a projected 11.6 billion dollars, compared with 11.2 billion dollars in the 2024 presidential cycle, according to AdImpact, which tracks broadcast advertising.
The polling picture has been darkening for Republicans for weeks. The Cook Political Report, a trusted election forecaster, shifted more than a dozen congressional races toward Democrats on October 30, suggesting the party could win its largest House majority in more than a decade. Its latest forecast put more than 220 House races favouring Democrats; if the party won all of those seats, plus 18 toss-ups, it would hold a 240-seat majority. Democrats need at least 218 seats to win the majority.
Approval ratings move for reasons, and in this campaign two stand out. The first is household economics. Voters who feel squeezed by prices judge a president on whether life is getting cheaper or more expensive, and the Times/Siena numbers show that judgement going against the White House on both the cost of living generally and fuel costs specifically. When more than four in 10 of a president's own partisans dislike his handling of fuel costs, the problem is no longer confined to the opposition.
The second is the war in Iran. USA Today explicitly linked the president's low standing to "the lingering war in Iran" alongside high gas prices, and the two issues reinforce each other: a prolonged conflict feeds uncertainty about energy supplies, and energy prices feed directly into household budgets. The president spent Saturday night at Mar-a-Lago insisting that Iran wants a deal and that negotiations are "going fine", while also warning that the United States could strike remaining Iranian nuclear sites "in 10 minutes". That dual message, diplomacy and threat in the same breath, has not yet translated into public confidence.
There is also a timing effect. Favourability has dipped over the last 30 days, according to the tracker, which means the slide has accelerated as voters have paid closer attention. Late-deciding voters, who often break against the party in power in midterms, are forming their views now, and they are doing so against a backdrop of expensive fuel, a long war and a campaign dominated by the president himself.
The Sunday reporting focused on the numbers and the historical comparison rather than on a direct response from the White House to this specific tracker reading, and no new White House statement on the poll was included in the coverage checked for this article. The sharpest assessment in the reporting came from the Times itself, through Cohn's finding that Trump's pre-midterm favourability is the lowest since Truman, a comparison USA Today carried prominently.
Trump's own closing message, as described by USA Today, is to invite voters at rallies across the country, including his Iowa and Kansas stops on Sunday, to pretend he is on the ballot. It is a familiar midterm tactic: turn an election in which the president's name does not appear into a personal referendum, and hope that personal loyalty outweighs dissatisfaction with conditions. The tracker suggests that gamble is now running against a powerful headwind.
Democrats, for their part, have framed the election in exactly those referendum terms. Their argument, as reflected in the campaign coverage, is that a vote for Democratic candidates is a check on the administration, with investigations and a blocked legislative agenda as the advertised consequences of a Democratic victory. The poll numbers give that argument its sharpest edge yet.
A 36 percent approval rating two days before a midterm matters because it predicts the weather in which every Republican candidate is campaigning. Candidates in swing districts cannot easily outrun a president this unpopular, and the Cook Political Report's shift of races toward Democrats suggests many are not managing it. The House, where Republicans defend a four-seat majority, is the most exposed chamber, but the Senate map, with 35 seats at stake, leaves little room for error either.
It also matters for what comes after Tuesday. A president who enters a midterm this unpopular and then loses one or both chambers faces two years of investigations, blocked nominees and a stalled agenda. The Supreme Court adds another layer: the court is not on the ballot, but the results could shape disputes about its membership, size and ethics. Trump, who has appointed three justices, has floated naming Senator Ted Cruz of Texas to the court if there is a vacancy, while some Democrats have proposed expanding the court or setting term limits to dilute the conservative majority. A Democratic Senate could block any nominee outright.
Finally, the fuel-cost detail matters on its own. Presidents are often forgiven a weak economy if their own supporters still believe in their handling of it. When a large share of Republicans say they dislike the president's handling of fuel costs, the coalition itself is showing strain, and that strain is visible in the very states where Senate control will be decided.
Trump is spending Sunday on the campaign trail in two Republican-leaning farm-belt states where his party is fighting to hold Senate seats. He was due to speak in Dubuque, Iowa, at 3 p.m. Central Time, campaigning for Republican Senate nominee Ashley Hinson and other Iowa Republicans, before heading to Salina, Kansas, where he was due to speak at 7 p.m. Central Time for Senator Roger Marshall and Kansas Republicans. Both events were briefly cancelled before being restored to the final-weekend schedule.
Polls close on Tuesday, November 3, and the first results will show whether the tracker was a warning or a verdict. If Democrats take the House, the consequences will be immediate: investigations, subpoenas and a legislative blockade. If Republicans hold on despite the numbers, the party will argue that its ground operation and the president's rallies overcame the national mood. Either way, the 36 percent figure will be the number historians cite when they explain how the final weekend of the 2026 campaign felt.
What is Donald Trump's approval rating in the latest New York Times tracker?
Trump stands at 36 percent approval, with 61 percent disapproving, according to the New York Times poll tracker reported by USA Today on November 1, 2026.
Why is the 36 percent figure historically significant?
According to Times chief political analyst Nate Cohn, it is the lowest pre-midterm favourability rating for any president in the last 80 years, lower than any president since Harry Truman.
What did the Times/Siena final poll find on the cost of living?
Just under three in 10 likely voters support how Trump has managed Americans' cost of living, and more than four in 10 Republicans dislike his handling of fuel costs.
What is at stake in the November 3 midterm elections?
All 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats and 39 governorships are on the ballot. Republicans hold a 218-214 House majority and a 53-47 Senate majority.
How many Americans have already voted?
More than 52 million Americans have voted in person or by mail, a record for a midterm, according to the University of Florida's Election Lab, up from nearly 46 million before Election Day in 2022.
Related coverage: Early voting passes 50 million as Democrats lead Republicans before the midterms, Cook Political Report shifts 14 races toward Democrats before the midterms, and Trump's Iran strike warning: US can hit Pickaxe Mountain in 10 minutes.
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